CountryWatch-CSLA Library Database

CountryWatch Forecast     FULL-TEXT
SUBJECTS: Political, economic, and business information about countries, worldwide
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CountryWatch Forecast provides a semi-annually updated 5-year, globally integrated macroeconomic forecast for each of the 192 countries in the world. It covers the following information:
  • Real GDP, population and Real GDP/capita
  • Nominal GDP and components of (C, I, G, X-M)
  • Government spending and taxation
  • Money, prices and interest rates
  • Trade, exchange rate and balance of payments
  • Based on robust macroeconomic model which includes 5 years of historical data updated monthly) from IMF and other sources.
  • Concisely written Economic Overview, Key Forecast Assumptions, and Forecast summary sections along with a Forecast Summary table for each country.
  • Projected exchange rates based on global growth, trade and capital flow forecasts and global cross-rate table.
  • Demand side nominal income model based on widely accepted macroeconomic theory and latest available IMF data.
  • Supply side model based on capital and labor inputs estimated from population/employment growth and net investment expenditure augmented by factor productivity growth.
  • Key behavioral parameters (e.g. interest rate elasticity of investment) estimated from recent data, but can be adjusted by the user.
  • Exogenous and policy variable inputs set by CountryWatch in the base forecast, but can be modified by the user to create alternative scenarios.
  • Model incorporates currency blocs (e.g. euro area) and exchange rate pegs and determines exchange rates using the global balance of payments.
  • Model theory, equations and solution are fully documented.